Crypto investments: is the Bitcoin headed for a historic downfall?
The year is 2024, and Bitcoin has just soared past $100,000 for the very first time in history. Fast-forward to late 2025, and the most famous digital currency in the world seems to be firmly anchored above 100K. But is it really its new floor? In view of historical data, the cyclical pattern that has shaped every bull market for well over ten years could mean bad news for Bitcoin owners. Some analysts go as far as to predict the cryptocurrency could lose up to 80% of its current value.
Bitcoin: an Uptober that didn’t stick the landing
In crypto circles, the “Uptober” moniker refers to a recurring market trend that sees most cryptocurrencies swell in value, and investors give their all on risky assets. Following the usual Septembear, which stands as one of crypto’s weakest-performing months historically, the currency kicked off October with a bang.
On October 6, Bitcoin price cleared its previous all-time high, rising above $125,000. Crypto enthusiasts had every reason to believe this upward trend would continue, as the currency had only posted one October loss in the past decade. However, the digital gold subsequently slipped to price levels not seen in months, ending a six-year run of gains. And Bitcoin has extended its bad run into November.
An old crypto market theory resurfaces
Bitcoin’s performance over the past month has been anything but reassuring. But observers have been ringing the alarm long before Uptober turned into Red October. On-chain analysts like Willy Woo issued warnings to Bitcoin holders, anticipating an 80% correction in the crypto’s price owing to tightening liquidity conditions and the asset’s structural weaknesses.
Incidentally, blockchain analysis reveals an upsetting constant since 2011, as every Bitcoin cycle has included a phase of accumulation, followed by expansion, and then a sharp contraction. These historical corrections have happened four times so far, with BTC suffering a whopping 77% drop in 2022.
As per the four-year cycle theory, revolving around a halving process that cuts the mining reward for new blocks in half, yet another dramatic bear market correction could be looming in the horizon. That said, this otherwise predictable pattern appears to be fracturing.
Bitcoin breaking the cycle: wishful thinking or factual theory?
Bitcoin shows signs of breaking its vicious circle of recurring crashes, as shifting investor demographics and favorable regulatory developments begin to redefine market dynamics. Speaking to CNBC, Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan expressed his belief that the 4-year cycle had come to an end, although he remained cautiously optimistic until seeing positive returns in 2026. Unlike past periods, Bitcoin’s current cycle shows an unparalleled degree of institutional involvement, fueled by substantial spot ETF inflows and strong industry backing.
Acting as a stabilizing force in an otherwise volatile market, this institutional adoption among leading asset management firms such as BlackRock and VanEck might drive the next bull run, positioning BTC as more than a mere speculative asset. In an interview with CBS, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink recently revised his approach to cryptocurrencies, stating they might serve the same purpose as gold.
Bitcoin’s latest downturn may be a temporary setback
The bullish momentum expected of Bitcoin in Uptober never came, but this rare break from tradition may not be as concerning as it looks. Coming off of its worst October in years, BTC could rebound in November as the macroeconomic environment surrounding cryptocurrencies has drastically changed.
Echoing Trump’s pro-crypto stance, US securities regulators revealed plans to better accommodate digital currencies in the summer. European countries such as Germany and France are contemplating establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Meanwhile, the use of digital currencies in daily life has shot up now that many merchants accept crypto payments. From online shopping to iGaming, crypto transactions have become mainstream on the web.
Real money casinos led the way by allowing gamers to make Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals. By integrating blockchain into their payment options, iGaming businesses appeal to users who value fast and anonymous transactions. Whether experienced or new to the gambling scene, these same players can grab sign-up offers and seasonal promotions to fund their bankroll. Specialized websites publish comprehensive listings of the most reputable platforms to kick off their online gaming adventure.
Will Bitcoin crash down before long? With volatility ingrained in the very nature of the cryptocurrency, this bleak scenario cannot be discarded. Yet, Bitcoin’s recent drop may not spell doom as many analysts believe the asset’s underwhelming performance only amounts to short-term noise.